Peak Inflation: Are We There Yet?
The answer to the title question is no, not quite, even with the deepening slide in a broad array of commodity prices. The coming June U.S.CPI release is expected to show another meaty monthly rise, probably lifting headline inflation to nearly 9%. And then the yearly comparisons turn a bit more difficult in the summer, as there actually was a brief lull in inflation a year ago. However, the slide in oil prices, in particular, raises the tantalizing possibility that inflation could top out soon, and—more importantly—perhaps even recede faster than expected in the year ahead. Clearly, much more than oil will determine whether inflation is finally close to cresting, but there are a variety of indicators now heading south. However, peaking is one thing; central banks will want to see inflation coming down markedly in the next 18 months. Below we consider the medium-term outlook based on a range of indicators.
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Douglas Porter
Chief Economist and Managing Director
Douglas Porter has over 30 years of experience analyzing global economies and financial markets. As Chief Economist at BMO Financial Group and author of the popular…(..)
View Full Profile >The answer to the title question is no, not quite, even with the deepening slide in a broad array of commodity prices. The coming June U.S.CPI release is expected to show another meaty monthly rise, probably lifting headline inflation to nearly 9%. And then the yearly comparisons turn a bit more difficult in the summer, as there actually was a brief lull in inflation a year ago. However, the slide in oil prices, in particular, raises the tantalizing possibility that inflation could top out soon, and—more importantly—perhaps even recede faster than expected in the year ahead. Clearly, much more than oil will determine whether inflation is finally close to cresting, but there are a variety of indicators now heading south. However, peaking is one thing; central banks will want to see inflation coming down markedly in the next 18 months. Below we consider the medium-term outlook based on a range of indicators.
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“We have an expectation that inflation will peak and begin to come down this year. To the extent inflation comes in higher or is more persisten…
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